Over the course of 2025, as is widely known, US customs tariffs have profoundly reshaped global trade relations with Canada, Mexico, China, and Europe, putting supply chains and export strategies under serious strain.
In a previous article, we examined the US–China trade war. Here, we focus on the global evolution of tariffs, with a particular emphasis on the European Union, its response measures, the effects on specific sectors and Italian exports, and the latest round of negotiations between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Donald Trump.
Tracking the evolution of US tariffs in a tumultuous 2025
Let’s begin on 1 February 2025. On this date, President Trump signed executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico (with Canadian energy taxed at 10%) and 10% on Chinese imports, citing links to the opioid crisis as justification.
After a brief suspension period, tariffs were reinstated on 4 March: China’s rate rose to 20%, while Canada and Mexico remained at 25%. On 2 April—now referred to as “Liberation Day”—a system of “reciprocal tariffs” came into force, ranging from 10% to 50% and covering approximately 180 countries, with the EU set at 20% and China at 34%. At the same time, tariffs of up to 50% were imposed on steel and aluminium, with all exemptions removed.
This escalation created widespread uncertainty, prompting many businesses to reassess suppliers and logistics routes in search of alternatives.
The European Union’s countermeasures to the US tariffs introduced in february 2025
In response, the European Union promptly prepared retaliatory tariffs worth around €21 billion on US goods, ranging from 10% to 25% and targeting items such as jeans, motorbikes, orange juice, and machinery. However, in an effort to encourage dialogue, Brussels suspended these measures until 14 July, and again until 7 August 2025.
At the same time, as we’ll explore in more detail below, the EU made a political offer to the US: a “zero-for-zero” agreement on industrial goods such as cars, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, along with a willingness to renegotiate tariffs if the US adopted a similar stance.
These strategic moves helped the EU avoid an uncontrollable escalation and kept negotiation channels open.
US–EU tariff: what is the new 15% “all-inclusive” tariff and which products it covers
As mentioned earlier, on 27 July in Turnberry, Scotland, Trump and von der Leyen reached a political agreement: a 15% “all-inclusive” US import tariff, effective from 1 August 2025, covering the majority of European goods. This new framework replaces the earlier threat of a 30% tariff, although steel and aluminium remain taxed at 50%. Brussels is currently negotiating the possible replacement of these duties with a quota-based system. In addition, a “zero-for-zero” clause was introduced, exempting key strategic products such as aircraft, generic pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, certain critical raw materials, and selected chemicals.
Subsequently, the administration issued a formal order delaying the implementation of the agreement to 7 August.
Impact of US–EU tariffs on the wine sector
One of the hardest-hit sectors is wine. Exports to the US are now subject to a 15% tariff, with estimated losses of around €317 million in the first year. This figure could rise to over €460 million if the euro-to-dollar exchange rate moves unfavourably.
The measure deals a significant blow to the competitiveness of Italian wine, which is already under pressure from the wider geopolitical environment.
Meanwhile, tariffs on european cars will remain at 2.5%
The 15% agreement does not alter the overall US tariff on European cars, which remains at 27.5% (2.5% MFN + 25% Section 232), as automobiles are excluded from the “all-inclusive” deal.
In practice, US customs duties on cars remain high, leaving the sector particularly exposed.
Impact of the 15% tariff on italian exports
Beyond wine, the 15% tariff could cost Italian exports up to €22 billion across sectors such as fashion, pharmaceuticals, and agri-food, unless further specific exemptions can be secured.
This situation demands a strategic rethinking of global value chains, pricing models, logistics, and market diversification.
Von der Leyen and the zero-for-zero tariffs on strategic products
Ursula von der Leyen placed reciprocal “zero-for-zero” exemptions at the heart of the transatlantic deal: a political commitment to maintaining zero tariffs on aircraft and components, generic pharmaceuticals, technological chips, and critical raw materials. This approach aims to protect vulnerable strategic industries and ensure technological continuity across both markets, while also creating opportunities for regulatory alignment.
In conclusion, the 2025 US tariffs disrupted long-standing trade relations. Yet the 15% “all-inclusive” agreement, while limited in scope, has brought greater stability compared to earlier threats. The EU’s countermeasures and its preference for diplomatic negotiation helped avoid irreversible escalation. It is essential for Italian companies to fully understand the new tariff regime in order to safeguard exports and supply chains.
CTI remains available to provide hands-on support: with our expertise, we can help businesses reorganise logistics routes, mitigate tariff impacts, and identify applicable exemptions in this new global landscape.
Contact us for tailored advice.
