Europe’s jet fuel crisis began with the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict in Iran, a chokepoint through which a critical share of global energy flows had been passing. For air transport, the issue was not only the price of crude oil, but the availability of refined product: aviation kerosene depends on dedicated supply chains, operating refineries, available vessels, and stocks positioned in the right locations. According to IATA and the IEA, before the crisis Hormuz accounted for around 20% of global jet fuel trade, and Europe was the continent most dependent on those supplies, with approximately 40% of its aviation kerosene needs transiting through the Strait.
Fear of an aviation fuel shortage
Between April and May, the concern was clear: reaching June with inventories too low just as the summer peak was approaching. On 18 May, the European Commission stated that there were no fuel shortages in the EU, but that regional constraints could emerge if the Hormuz blockade continued, with jet fuel representing the main pressure point. In other words, the fear was not a complete shutdown of European airports, but an uneven crisis, with a heavier impact on regional airports, less profitable routes, and markets more dependent on seaborne supplies.
Selective Flight Cuts in 2026
It was against this backdrop that airlines began reducing their schedules. In May, around 12,000–13,000 flights were removed from the global schedule, cutting almost 2 million seats. These were not sudden cancellations announced to passengers at the last minute, but decisions taken weeks in advance to ration available kerosene during the less profitable months and preserve operations during the most important period, namely July and August. The figures should be read carefully: out of roughly 3 million flights monitored globally each month, those cuts represented only a few tenths of a percentage point, between 0.2% and 0.4% of monthly traffic. The overall impact was limited, but highly asymmetric across routes and carriers.
Lufthansa was among the most aggressive airlines: it announced 20,000 fewer flights between May and October, mainly on unprofitable short-haul routes, with an estimated saving of around 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel. Turkish Airlines, according to Cirium data cited by the Financial Times, cancelled more than 3,000 flights, affecting 23 routes. KLM planned 160 cancellations in Europe, while Spirit Airlines, already financially fragile, ceased operations in early May. This shows that higher fuel costs do not affect all airlines in the same way: carriers with low margins, limited financial hedging, or less profitable routes are far more exposed.
The jet fuel situation in Europe today
Compared with the most pessimistic scenario, the feared physical shortage in June has not materialised. On 5 June, EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas told Reuters that Europe was not facing a jet fuel shortage and that there were no signs of scarcity in the immediate period ahead, partly because Europe produces more than 70% of the aviation fuel it consumes. However, he added that the real issue remained price, as jet fuel had at one point risen to double its pre-war levels.
On the cost side, tensions remain evident. In its 7 June outlook, IATA estimated an average jet fuel price for 2026 of $152 per barrel, almost 70% higher than the $90 recorded in 2025. Global airline fuel expenditure is expected to rise from $252 billion to $350 billion, an increase of around $100 billion, while industry net profits are forecast at $23 billion, roughly half of the $45 billion estimated for 2025.
The very latest developments, however, have changed the tone of the market. The memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June between the United States and Iran pushed crude prices lower and triggered a partial resumption of transits through the Strait, although the situation remains unstable and maritime traffic volumes are still far from pre-war levels. The IEA has warned that normalisation will not be immediate: time will be needed to clear maritime routes and rebuild supply chains.
IATA has also recorded a cooling in spot prices: its latest Fuel Price Monitor shows a weekly drop of 14.2%, to $119.17 per barrel. This is good news, but it does not mean that fuel surcharges will disappear immediately. On 22 June, Reuters highlighted that airlines may use the relief on costs first to rebuild margins, rather than immediately reducing fares and surcharges.
What to expect from flights in July and August 2026
If the Hormuz agreement holds, July and August could open with a less critical outlook in terms of physical availability. Price pressure should ease gradually, especially if energy flows from the Gulf continue to recover and alternative imports remain stable. However, the air transport market will not automatically return to where it was a year ago: many airlines have already cut capacity, revised their networks, applied surcharges, and protected their most profitable routes.
If, on the other hand, the agreement fails, the risk would be a renewed phase of volatility. At that point, the issue would not only be more expensive jet fuel, but also more selective capacity. Airlines could continue cutting marginal routes, concentrate aircraft on the most profitable connections, and keep fuel surcharges elevated. For Europe, the greatest risk would remain concentrated on regional airports and on routes more dependent on connections with Asia, the Middle East, and the eastern Mediterranean.
For international air logistics, the point is very practical: every cancelled or reduced passenger flight can also remove cargo capacity, because a significant share of goods travels in the belly hold of passenger aircraft. In its 16 June update, Freightos reported that jet fuel prices were still around 40% above pre-war levels and that the global Freightos Air Index remained around 30% higher both year on year and compared with the period before the conflict. The China–Europe route was also still 30% more expensive than at the end of February.
In short, the worst of the shortage risk appears to have been avoided for now, but July and August will still require careful management. Planning air shipments in advance, assessing multimodal alternatives, and monitoring surcharges are no longer merely advisable: they are operational necessities. CTI is tracking developments in the air, ocean, and intermodal markets week by week. To understand how to protect the timing, costs, and continuity of your shipments, we encourage you to contact us for tailored guidance.
